
Are Liquidity Rewards on Polymarket's Weather Markets Profitable? We Measured 256,000 Order-Book Snapshots
A trader asked us to rewrite his weather market maker in Rust. We measured the opportunity first — 256,000 order-book snapshots across 1,702 temperature buckets — and told him not to build it. What the reward economics actually look like, why the richest markets are the worst, and why we threw away our own positive result.
























